| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 54.3% | 44% | +10.5% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 44.1% | 55.9% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 51.2% | 48.8% |
| logistic | 61.8% | 38.2% |
| Federico Coria | Eduardo Ribeiro | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1599 | 1463 |
| Surface Elo | 1599 | 1463 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | -0.60 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| Rest days | 1 | 2 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 22 Sep | A | Lucio Ratti | 2 - 1 | W |
| 21 Sep | A | Eduardo Ribeiro | 0 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep | H | Lucio Ratti | 2 - 1 | W |
| 27 Jul | H | Francesco Forti | 0 - 2 | L |
| 06 Jul | H | Guy Den Ouden | 1 - 2 | L |
| 22 Sep | H | Pedro Martinez | 1 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep | H | Pedro Boscardin Dias | 0 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep | H | Federico Coria | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep | H | Pedro Martinez | 2 - 0 | W |
| 31 Aug | H | Pedro Vives Marcos | 0 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep 2026 | Eduardo Ribeiro | 2 - 0 | Federico Coria |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.69 | 59.2% | 24 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.10 | 47.6% | 24 Sep 06:15 |