| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 59.5% | 60% | -0.8% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 52.6% | 47.4% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 64.6% | 35.4% |
| logistic | 58.4% | 41.6% |
| Keegan Smith | Edward Winter | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1600 | 1524 |
| Surface Elo | 1600 | 1524 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 63 | 28 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 21 Sep | A | Dylan Dietrich | 0 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep | A | Edward Winter | 2 - 1 | W |
| 15 Sep | A | Mitchell Krueger | 1 - 2 | L |
| 14 Sep | H | Mitchell Krueger | 1 - 2 | L |
| 20 Jul | H | Luka Pavlovic | 0 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep | H | Keegan Smith | 1 - 2 | L |
| 14 Sep | H | Tristan Boyer | 0 - 2 | L |
| 24 Aug | A | Andy Andrade | 0 - 2 | L |
| 17 Aug | H | Gonzalo Bueno | 0 - 2 | L |
| 17 Aug | H | John Chin | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep 2026 | Edward Winter | 1 - 2 | Keegan Smith |
| 09 Oct 2023 | Edward Winter | 0 - 2 | Keegan Smith |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.15 | 46.5% | 21 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.66 | 60.2% | 21 Sep 06:15 |