OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge

Back to 🎾 Tennis on 2026-10-29

🎾 tennis_atp_vienna_open · Thursday 29 October 2026, 14:00 UTC · scheduled

Nikoloz Basilashvili 1.80 14:00 1.80 Carlos Alcaraz

Our markets (latest run)

Market	Most likely	Model	Bookmaker	Edge	Result
1X2	Away win	75.3%	90%	-14.8%

Model breakdown (1X2)

Model	Home	Away
poisson	37.0%	35.2%
xgboost	16.4%	83.6%
logistic	20.2%	79.8%
markov	abstained: unknown match format (best_of=0)

Inputs the models saw

	Nikoloz Basilashvili	Carlos Alcaraz
Elo (pre-match)	1847	2276
Surface Elo	1847	2276
Form, last 5 (PPG)	1.80	1.80
Form trend	0.30	0.30
Season points per game	1.50	1.50
Season goals for / game	1.50	1.50
Season goals against / game	1.50	1.50
Rest days	1	2
Head-to-head (last 10)	0 W	2 W · 0 D

Nikoloz Basilashvili: last 5

28 Oct	A	Jurij Rodionov	2 - 0	W
25 Oct	A	Daniil Medvedev	1 - 2	L
25 Oct	A	Daniil Medvedev	1 - 2	L
24 Oct	H	Stefanos Tsitsipas	2 - 1	W
24 Oct	H	Stefanos Tsitsipas	2 - 1	W

Carlos Alcaraz: last 5

27 Oct	A	Karen Khachanov	2 - 0	W
12 Oct	A	Zizou Bergs	0 - 2	L
12 Oct	H	Zizou Bergs	0 - 2	L
10 Oct	A	Juan Manuel Cerundolo	2 - 0	W
10 Oct	H	Juan Manuel Cerundolo	2 - 0	W

Head to head

02 May 2022	Carlos Alcaraz	2 - 0	Nikoloz Basilashvili
31 May 2021	Carlos Alcaraz	3 - 0	Nikoloz Basilashvili

Bookmaker lines

Book	Market	Outcome	Odds	Implied	As of
1xBet	h2h	Carlos Alcaraz	1.10	90.9%	29 Oct 06:01
1xBet	h2h	Nikoloz Basilashvili	7.29	13.7%	29 Oct 06:01
888sport	h2h	Carlos Alcaraz	1.10	90.9%	29 Oct 06:01
888sport	h2h	Nikoloz Basilashvili	7.00	14.3%	29 Oct 06:01
Betclic (FR)	h2h	Carlos Alcaraz	1.09	91.7%	29 Oct 06:01
Betclic (FR)	h2h	Nikoloz Basilashvili	6.40	15.6%	29 Oct 06:01
Betfair sharp	h2h	Carlos Alcaraz	1.13	88.5%	29 Oct 06:01
Betfair sharp	h2h	Nikoloz Basilashvili	8.40	11.9%	29 Oct 06:01
Betfair sharp	h2h_lay	Carlos Alcaraz	1.14	87.7%	29 Oct 06:01
Betfair sharp	h2h_lay	Nikoloz Basilashvili	8.80	11.4%	29 Oct 06:01
BetOnline.ag	h2h	Carlos Alcaraz	1.08	92.6%	29 Oct 06:01
BetOnline.ag	h2h	Nikoloz Basilashvili	8.49	11.8%	29 Oct 06:01
Betsson	h2h	Carlos Alcaraz	1.10	90.9%	29 Oct 06:01
Betsson	h2h	Nikoloz Basilashvili	6.80	14.7%	29 Oct 06:01
Coolbet	h2h	Carlos Alcaraz	1.09	91.7%	29 Oct 06:01
Coolbet	h2h	Nikoloz Basilashvili	7.50	13.3%	29 Oct 06:01
LeoVegas (SE)	h2h	Carlos Alcaraz	1.09	91.7%	29 Oct 06:01
LeoVegas (SE)	h2h	Nikoloz Basilashvili	7.50	13.3%	29 Oct 06:01
Marathon Bet	h2h	Carlos Alcaraz	1.10	90.9%	29 Oct 06:01
Marathon Bet	h2h	Nikoloz Basilashvili	6.95	14.4%	29 Oct 06:01
Matchbook	h2h	Carlos Alcaraz	1.13	88.5%	29 Oct 06:01
Matchbook	h2h	Nikoloz Basilashvili	8.40	11.9%	29 Oct 06:01
Matchbook	h2h_lay	Carlos Alcaraz	1.14	87.7%	29 Oct 06:01
Matchbook	h2h_lay	Nikoloz Basilashvili	8.60	11.6%	29 Oct 06:01
Nordic Bet	h2h	Carlos Alcaraz	1.10	90.9%	29 Oct 06:01
Nordic Bet	h2h	Nikoloz Basilashvili	6.80	14.7%	29 Oct 06:01
Pinnacle sharp	h2h	Carlos Alcaraz	1.09	91.7%	29 Oct 06:01
Pinnacle sharp	h2h	Nikoloz Basilashvili	8.21	12.2%	29 Oct 06:01
PMU (FR)	h2h	Carlos Alcaraz	1.05	95.2%	29 Oct 06:01
PMU (FR)	h2h	Nikoloz Basilashvili	6.75	14.8%	29 Oct 06:01
SportyBet	1X2	away	1.11	90.1%	29 Oct 06:15
SportyBet	1X2	home	7.30	13.7%	29 Oct 06:15
Tipico	h2h	Carlos Alcaraz	1.06	94.3%	29 Oct 06:01
Tipico	h2h	Nikoloz Basilashvili	7.20	13.9%	29 Oct 06:01
Unibet (FR)	h2h	Carlos Alcaraz	1.08	92.6%	29 Oct 06:01
Unibet (FR)	h2h	Nikoloz Basilashvili	5.50	18.2%	29 Oct 06:01
Unibet (NL)	h2h	Carlos Alcaraz	1.09	91.7%	29 Oct 06:01
Unibet (NL)	h2h	Nikoloz Basilashvili	7.50	13.3%	29 Oct 06:01
Unibet (SE)	h2h	Carlos Alcaraz	1.09	91.7%	29 Oct 06:01
Unibet (SE)	h2h	Nikoloz Basilashvili	7.50	13.3%	29 Oct 06:01
William Hill	h2h	Carlos Alcaraz	1.10	90.9%	29 Oct 06:01
William Hill	h2h	Nikoloz Basilashvili	7.00	14.3%	29 Oct 06:01
Winamax (DE)	h2h	Carlos Alcaraz	1.11	90.1%	29 Oct 06:01
Winamax (DE)	h2h	Nikoloz Basilashvili	7.50	13.3%	29 Oct 06:01
Winamax (FR)	h2h	Carlos Alcaraz	1.09	91.7%	29 Oct 06:01
Winamax (FR)	h2h	Nikoloz Basilashvili	6.25	16.0%	29 Oct 06:01

Generated 2026-10-30 15:02 UTC