| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 47.3% | 40% | +7.1% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or away | 75.4% | 75% | +0.6% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 60.6% | 56% | +4.7% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.8% | 52% | +9.8% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 56.3% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 39.5% | 29.7% | 30.8% |
| xgboost | 48.5% | 20.2% | 31.4% |
| logistic | 37.5% | 30.9% | 31.6% |
| Watford | Charlton | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1426 | 1505 |
| Surface Elo | 1426 | 1505 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| Form trend | 0.60 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 0.00 | 0.67 |
| Season goals for / game | 0.50 | 1.33 |
| Season goals against / game | 4.50 | 2.00 |
| Rest days | 3 | 3 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 1 W · 1 D |
| 13 Oct | A | Cardiff | 1 - 5 | L |
| 13 Oct | A | Cardiff | 1 - 5 | L |
| 10 Oct | H | Burnley | 0 - 4 | L |
| 10 Oct | H | Burnley | 0 - 4 | L |
| 18 Sep | A | Bristol City | 0 - 1 | L |
| 13 Oct | A | Burnley | 2 - 2 | D |
| 13 Oct | A | Burnley | 2 - 2 | D |
| 10 Oct | H | Bristol City | 1 - 1 | D |
| 10 Oct | H | Bristol City | 1 - 1 | D |
| 19 Sep | A | Cardiff | 1 - 3 | L |
| 06 Apr 2026 | Watford | 1 - 1 | Charlton |
| 09 Aug 2025 | Charlton | 1 - 0 | Watford |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.88 | 34.7% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.45 | 29.0% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.54 | 39.4% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.93 | 51.8% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.91 | 52.4% | 16 Oct 06:15 |