| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 48.3% | 54% | -5.6% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or draw | 77.8% | 80% | -2.6% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 65.9% | 73% | -7.0% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.8% | 47% | +8.7% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 54.7% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 51.7% | 24.9% | 23.5% |
| xgboost | 40.1% | 37.7% | 22.3% |
| logistic | 45.4% | 28.6% | 26.0% |
| Sp Braga | Gent | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1639 | 1654 |
| Surface Elo | 1639 | 1654 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.80 | 2.60 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| Rest days | 2 | 12 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 19 Oct | H | Gil Vicente | 1 - 2 | L |
| 15 Oct | A | Copenhagen | 0 - 3 | L |
| 11 Oct | H | FC Tirsense | 3 - 2 | W |
| 09 Oct | H | Sp Lisbon | 1 - 3 | L |
| 09 Oct | H | Sporting | 1 - 3 | L |
| 18 Oct | A | Union Rochefortoise | 3 - 3 | D |
| 15 Oct | H | AGF Aarhus | 1 - 0 | W |
| 10 Oct | A | SV Zulte Waregem | 2 - 0 | W |
| 10 Oct | A | Waregem | 2 - 0 | W |
| 18 Sep | H | Standard | 2 - 1 | W |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 4.26 | 23.5% | 22 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.65 | 27.4% | 22 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.96 | 51.0% | 22 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 2.15 | 46.5% | 22 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.72 | 58.1% | 22 Oct 06:15 |