OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to 🎾 Tennis on 2026-09-29
🎾 ATP Challenger Porto 2, Portugal Men Singles · Tuesday 29 September 2026, 11:10 UTC · finished
Toby Samuel 1.80 1 - 0 0.00 Mackenzie Mcdonald
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Home win 70.8%77%-6.3%✓ hit
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeAway
markov73.5%26.5%
poisson37.0%35.3%
xgboost67.6%32.3%
logistic62.7%37.3%
Inputs the models saw
Toby SamuelMackenzie Mcdonald
Elo (pre-match)17601647
Surface Elo17601647
Form, last 5 (PPG)1.800.00
Form trend0.600.00
Season points per game1.501.50
Season goals for / game1.501.50
Season goals against / game1.501.50
Rest days2743
Head-to-head (last 10)0 W0 W · 0 D
Toby Samuel: last 5
28 SepAJerome Kym1 - 2L
28 SepAMackenzie Mcdonald2 - 0W
02 SepAJiri Lehecka0 - 3L
30 AugHTomas Machac3 - 0W
27 JulAJay Friend0 - 2L
Mackenzie Mcdonald: last 5
28 SepHToby Samuel0 - 2L
17 AugAJacob Fearnley0 - 2L
28 JulAAlex Michelsen0 - 2L
06 JulAAdam Walton0 - 2L
30 JunHPatrick Kypson1 - 3L
Head to head
28 Sep 2026Mackenzie Mcdonald0 - 2Toby Samuel
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
SportyBet1X2away3.1531.8%29 Sep 06:15
SportyBet1X2home1.3375.2%29 Sep 06:15
Generated 2026-10-30 17:06 UTC