| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 49.9% | 57% | -6.7% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or draw | 77.5% | 82% | -4.8% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 68.9% | 75% | -6.5% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 66.5% | 49% | +17.3% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 54.7% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 49.9% | 27.6% | 22.5% |
| logistic | failed: ValueError | ||
| xgboost | failed: ValueError | ||
| Toulouse | Le Havre | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1629 | 1564 |
| Surface Elo | 1629 | 1564 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| Season points per game | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.75 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 6 | 6 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 5 W | 3 W · 2 D |
| 12 Sep | A | Lorient | 2 - 2 | D |
| 03 Sep | H | Lille | 0 - 1 | L |
| 29 Aug | A | Brest | 2 - 2 | D |
| 22 Aug | H | Lyon | 0 - 2 | L |
| 17 May | A | Nantes | 0 - 0 | D |
| 12 Sep | H | Angers | 0 - 0 | D |
| 05 Sep | H | Brest | 1 - 2 | L |
| 29 Aug | A | Lyon | 1 - 1 | D |
| 23 Aug | H | Monaco | 0 - 1 | L |
| 17 May | A | Lorient | 2 - 0 | W |
| 15 Feb 2026 | Le Havre | 2 - 1 | Toulouse |
| 02 Nov 2025 | Toulouse | 0 - 0 | Le Havre |
| 23 Feb 2025 | Le Havre | 1 - 4 | Toulouse |
| 15 Sep 2024 | Toulouse | 2 - 0 | Le Havre |
| 10 Mar 2024 | Le Havre | 1 - 0 | Toulouse |
| 05 Nov 2023 | Toulouse | 1 - 2 | Le Havre |
| 21 Feb 2022 | Toulouse | 4 - 0 | Le Havre |
| 13 Sep 2021 | Le Havre | 1 - 1 | Toulouse |
| 04 May 2021 | Le Havre | 0 - 1 | Toulouse |
| 19 Dec 2020 | Toulouse | 4 - 3 | Le Havre |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 5.00 | 20.0% | 19 Sep 19:45 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 4.00 | 25.0% | 19 Sep 19:45 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 1.65 | 60.6% | 19 Sep 19:45 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.62 | 61.7% | 19 Sep 19:45 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.30 | 43.5% | 19 Sep 19:45 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 4.82 | 20.8% | 19 Sep 06:16 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 4.12 | 24.3% | 19 Sep 06:16 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.76 | 56.8% | 19 Sep 06:16 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.68 | 59.5% | 19 Sep 06:16 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.25 | 44.4% | 19 Sep 06:16 |