OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge

Back to 🏈 NFL on 2026-10-11

NFL · Sunday 11 October 2026, 17:00 UTC · finished

Green Bay Packers – 31 - 7 – Chicago Bears

NFL forecast: home/away probabilities are conditional on no tie. Full-game moneylines include overtime; ties refund. Pick publication is disabled pending validation.

Our markets (latest run)

Market	Most likely	Model	Bookmaker	Edge	Result
1X2	Away win	51.4%	55%	-3.6%	✗ miss

Model breakdown (1X2)

Model	Home	Away
ensemble	48.6%	51.4%

Inputs the models saw

	Green Bay Packers	Chicago Bears
playoff	0.00
elo diff	-0.03
form diff	-0.25
rest diff	0.00
home field	1.00
point diff	-1.01
opponent strength diff	-0.07
Information cutoff (UTC)	2026-10-10T17:00:00+00:00

Green Bay Packers: last 5

04 Oct	A	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	17 - 14	W
25 Sep	H	Atlanta Falcons	14 - 35	L
20 Sep	A	New York Jets	20 - 17	W
13 Sep	A	Minnesota Vikings	22 - 39	L
11 Jan	A	Chicago Bears	27 - 31	L

Chicago Bears: last 5

04 Oct	H	New York Jets	23 - 12	W
29 Sep	H	Philadelphia Eagles	27 - 7	W
20 Sep	H	Minnesota Vikings	3 - 9	L
13 Sep	A	Carolina Panthers	59 - 37	W
18 Jan	H	Los Angeles Rams	17 - 20	L

Head to head

11 Jan 2026	Chicago Bears	31 - 27	Green Bay Packers
21 Dec 2025	Chicago Bears	22 - 16	Green Bay Packers
07 Dec 2025	Green Bay Packers	28 - 21	Chicago Bears
05 Jan 2025	Green Bay Packers	22 - 24	Chicago Bears
17 Nov 2024	Chicago Bears	19 - 20	Green Bay Packers
07 Jan 2024	Green Bay Packers	17 - 9	Chicago Bears
10 Sep 2023	Chicago Bears	20 - 38	Green Bay Packers
04 Dec 2022	Chicago Bears	19 - 28	Green Bay Packers
19 Sep 2022	Green Bay Packers	27 - 10	Chicago Bears
13 Dec 2021	Green Bay Packers	45 - 30	Chicago Bears

Bookmaker lines

Book	Market	Outcome	Odds	Implied	As of
Pinnacle sharp	1X2	home	2.06	48.5%	11 Oct 12:20
Pinnacle sharp	1X2	away	1.84	54.3%	11 Oct 12:20

Generated 2026-10-30 17:03 UTC