| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 55.5% | 58% | -2.7% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 48.7% | 51.3% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 45.0% | 55.0% |
| logistic | 43.4% | 56.6% |
| Ryan Nijboer | Francesco Forti | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1446 | 1525 |
| Surface Elo | 1446 | 1525 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 1 | 5 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 21 Sep | H | Juan Mano, Alejandro | 1 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep | A | Francesco Forti | 0 - 2 | L |
| 20 Sep | H | Iannis Miletich | 2 - 0 | W |
| 17 Aug | H | Tommaso Compagnucci | 0 - 2 | L |
| 17 Aug | A | Murkel Dellien | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep | A | Carlo Alberto Caniato | 0 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep | H | Mika Petkovic | 2 - 1 | W |
| 21 Sep | A | Alejandro Juan Mano | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep | H | Ryan Nijboer | 2 - 0 | W |
| 17 Sep | H | Mika Brunold | 0 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep 2026 | Francesco Forti | 2 - 0 | Ryan Nijboer |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.72 | 58.1% | 22 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.05 | 48.8% | 22 Sep 06:15 |