| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 47.0% | 42% | +5.5% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or draw | 77.1% | 73% | +3.7% | ✗ miss |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 64.6% | 59% | +5.4% | ✗ miss |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.4% | 46% | +11.1% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 55.4% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 45.6% | 28.7% | 25.7% |
| xgboost | 36.7% | 43.5% | 19.8% |
| logistic | 41.4% | 29.9% | 28.7% |
| Burgos | Granada | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1574 | 1435 |
| Surface Elo | 1574 | 1435 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| Form trend | 0.20 | -0.50 |
| Season points per game | 1.75 | 1.38 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.63 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.13 | 1.63 |
| Rest days | 9 | 8 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 2 W · 3 D |
| 03 Oct | A | Almeria | 1 - 2 | L |
| 03 Oct | A | Almeria | 1 - 2 | L |
| 27 Sep | H | Eldense | 1 - 0 | W |
| 27 Sep | H | Eldense | 1 - 0 | W |
| 27 Sep | A | Cultural Leonesa | 0 - 0 | D |
| 04 Oct | A | Sociedad | 3 - 2 | W |
| 04 Oct | A | Sociedad B | 3 - 2 | W |
| 03 Oct | A | Atletico Malagueno | 0 - 2 | L |
| 26 Sep | H | Andorra | 2 - 3 | L |
| 26 Sep | H | Andorra | 2 - 3 | L |
| 16 May 2026 | Granada | 0 - 1 | Burgos |
| 22 Sep 2025 | Burgos | 1 - 1 | Granada |
| 10 Jan 2025 | Granada | 0 - 0 | Burgos |
| 29 Sep 2024 | Burgos | 2 - 2 | Granada |
| 04 Mar 2023 | Burgos | 1 - 3 | Granada |
| 11 Dec 2022 | Granada | 1 - 0 | Burgos |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 2.82 | 35.5% | 12 Oct 15:15 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 3.00 | 33.3% | 12 Oct 15:15 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 2.55 | 39.2% | 12 Oct 15:15 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 2.35 | 42.5% | 12 Oct 15:15 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.57 | 63.7% | 12 Oct 15:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.90 | 34.5% | 12 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.20 | 31.2% | 12 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.50 | 40.0% | 12 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 2.20 | 45.5% | 12 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.65 | 60.6% | 12 Oct 06:15 |