| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 37.6% | 36% | +1.2% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or away | 72.7% | 76% | -3.6% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 51.7% | 49% | +2.5% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 88.9% | 64% | +25.2% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 77.9% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 37.6% | 27.4% | 35.1% |
| logistic | failed: ValueError | ||
| xgboost | failed: ValueError | ||
| Hamburg | FC Koln | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1545 | 1524 |
| Surface Elo | 1545 | 1524 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| Form trend | 0.70 | -0.20 |
| Season points per game | 0.00 | 1.33 |
| Season goals for / game | 0.00 | 1.67 |
| Season goals against / game | 4.00 | 2.33 |
| Rest days | 5 | 6 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 4 W | 2 W · 2 D |
| 13 Sep | A | RB Leipzig | 0 - 5 | L |
| 06 Sep | H | Mainz | 0 - 5 | L |
| 29 Aug | A | Borussia Dortmund | 0 - 2 | L |
| 16 May | A | Bayer Leverkusen | 1 - 1 | D |
| 10 May | H | Freiburg | 3 - 2 | W |
| 19 Sep | H | Ingolstadt | 3 - 0 | W |
| 12 Sep | H | Werder Bremen | 1 - 1 | D |
| 04 Sep | A | Stuttgart | 1 - 4 | L |
| 29 Aug | H | Hoffenheim | 3 - 2 | W |
| 16 May | A | Bayern München | 1 - 5 | L |
| 14 Mar 2026 | Hamburg | 1 - 1 | FC Koln |
| 02 Nov 2025 | FC Koln | 4 - 1 | Hamburg |
| 18 Jan 2025 | Hamburg | 1 - 0 | FC Koln |
| 02 Aug 2024 | FC Koln | 1 - 2 | Hamburg |
| 15 Apr 2019 | FC Koln | 1 - 1 | Hamburg |
| 05 Nov 2018 | Hamburg | 1 - 0 | FC Koln |
| 20 Jan 2018 | Hamburg | 0 - 2 | FC Koln |
| 25 Aug 2017 | FC Koln | 1 - 3 | Hamburg |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 2.50 | 40.0% | 19 Sep 14:30 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 3.60 | 27.8% | 19 Sep 14:30 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 2.63 | 38.0% | 19 Sep 14:30 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.57 | 63.7% | 19 Sep 14:30 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.38 | 42.0% | 19 Sep 14:30 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.61 | 38.3% | 19 Sep 06:16 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.75 | 26.7% | 19 Sep 06:16 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.70 | 37.0% | 19 Sep 06:16 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.58 | 63.3% | 19 Sep 06:16 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.45 | 40.8% | 19 Sep 06:16 |