OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge

Back to 🎾 Tennis on 2026-10-17

🎾 ATP Shanghai, China Men Singles · Saturday 17 October 2026, 11:00 UTC · finished

Rafael Jodar 2.40 2 - 0 2.40 Daniil Medvedev

Our markets (latest run)

Market	Most likely	Model	Bookmaker	Edge	Result
1X2	Away win	59.8%	no line		✗ miss

Model breakdown (1X2)

Model	Home	Away
markov	41.7%	58.3%
poisson	37.1%	35.2%
xgboost	43.3%	56.6%
logistic	42.2%	57.8%

Inputs the models saw

	Rafael Jodar	Daniil Medvedev
Elo (pre-match)	2014	2086
Surface Elo	2014	2086
Form, last 5 (PPG)	2.40	2.40
Form trend	-0.60	-0.60
Season points per game	2.40	2.75
Season goals for / game	1.60	1.83
Season goals against / game	1.20	0.42
Rest days	1	1
Head-to-head (last 10)	0 W	0 W · 0 D

Rafael Jodar: last 5

17 Oct	A	Daniil Medvedev	2 - 0	W
16 Oct	H	Casper Ruud	2 - 1	W
16 Oct	A	Casper Ruud	2 - 1	W
14 Oct	A	Botic Van De Zandschulp	2 - 1	W
14 Oct	A	Botic Van De Zandschulp	2 - 1	W

Daniil Medvedev: last 5

17 Oct	H	Rafael Jodar	0 - 2	L
16 Oct	H	Tommy Paul	2 - 1	W
16 Oct	H	Tommy Paul	2 - 1	W
14 Oct	H	Stefanos Tsitsipas	2 - 0	W
14 Oct	H	Stefanos Tsitsipas	2 - 0	W

Head to head

17 Oct 2026

Daniil Medvedev

0 - 2

Rafael Jodar

Bookmaker lines

Book	Market	Outcome	Odds	Implied	As of
No bookmaker lines stored.

Generated 2026-10-30 15:01 UTC