| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 51.1% | 58% | -6.9% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Draw or away | 77.9% | 83% | -4.9% | ✗ miss |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 69.8% | 76% | -6.5% | ✗ miss |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 52.3% | 47% | +5.5% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 52.4% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 22.1% | 26.8% | 51.1% |
| logistic | failed: ValueError | ||
| xgboost | failed: ValueError | ||
| Brighton | Arsenal | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1741 | 1950 |
| Surface Elo | 1741 | 1950 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.40 | 3.00 |
| Form trend | -0.40 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 1.75 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 3.25 | 2.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.25 | 0.25 |
| Rest days | 6 | 6 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 2 W | 5 W · 3 D |
| 13 Sep | A | Coventry | 5 - 0 | W |
| 05 Sep | H | Leeds | 1 - 1 | D |
| 30 Aug | A | Chelsea | 3 - 4 | L |
| 23 Aug | H | Aston Villa | 4 - 0 | W |
| 24 May | H | Manchester United | 0 - 3 | L |
| 12 Sep | A | Sunderland | 2 - 0 | W |
| 06 Sep | H | Chelsea | 2 - 1 | W |
| 31 Aug | A | Aston Villa | 1 - 0 | W |
| 21 Aug | H | Coventry | 3 - 0 | W |
| 24 May | A | Crystal Palace | 2 - 1 | W |
| 04 Mar 2026 | Brighton | 0 - 1 | Arsenal |
| 27 Dec 2025 | Arsenal | 2 - 1 | Brighton |
| 04 Jan 2025 | Brighton | 1 - 1 | Arsenal |
| 31 Aug 2024 | Arsenal | 1 - 1 | Brighton |
| 06 Apr 2024 | Brighton | 0 - 3 | Arsenal |
| 17 Dec 2023 | Arsenal | 2 - 0 | Brighton |
| 14 May 2023 | Arsenal | 0 - 3 | Brighton |
| 31 Dec 2022 | Brighton | 2 - 4 | Arsenal |
| 09 Apr 2022 | Arsenal | 1 - 2 | Brighton |
| 02 Oct 2021 | Brighton | 0 - 0 | Arsenal |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 1.70 | 58.8% | 19 Sep 15:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 3.80 | 26.3% | 19 Sep 15:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 5.00 | 20.0% | 19 Sep 15:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.83 | 54.6% | 19 Sep 15:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.03 | 49.3% | 19 Sep 15:00 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.76 | 56.8% | 19 Sep 06:16 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 4.07 | 24.6% | 19 Sep 06:16 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 4.83 | 20.7% | 19 Sep 06:16 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.75 | 57.1% | 19 Sep 06:16 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.15 | 46.5% | 19 Sep 06:16 |