| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 44.0% | 39% | +5.1% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or away | 74.7% | 77% | -1.9% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 55.6% | 54% | +1.3% | ✗ miss |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 55.9% | 50% | +5.9% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 51.6% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 42.1% | 29.8% | 28.1% |
| xgboost | 37.7% | 25.2% | 37.2% |
| logistic | 37.3% | 28.6% | 34.1% |
| Catanzaro | Ascoli | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1429 | 1456 |
| Surface Elo | 1429 | 1456 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| Form trend | 0.10 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 0.57 | 1.71 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.14 | 1.14 |
| Season goals against / game | 2.00 | 0.71 |
| Rest days | 7 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 16 Oct | A | Verona | 2 - 2 | D |
| 16 Oct | A | Verona | 2 - 2 | D |
| 11 Oct | H | Mantova | 1 - 3 | L |
| 11 Oct | H | Mantova | 1 - 3 | L |
| 10 Oct | A | Cosenza | 2 - 0 | W |
| 24 Oct | H | SS Monopoli | 0 - 2 | L |
| 18 Oct | H | Lanciano FC | 5 - 1 | W |
| 17 Oct | H | Empoli | 1 - 1 | D |
| 17 Oct | H | Empoli | 1 - 1 | D |
| 17 Oct | A | Pisa | 1 - 4 | L |
| 10 Feb 2024 | Catanzaro | 3 - 2 | Ascoli |
| 16 Dec 2023 | Ascoli | 1 - 0 | Catanzaro |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 2.85 | 35.1% | 24 Oct 16:15 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 3.30 | 30.3% | 24 Oct 16:15 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 2.35 | 42.5% | 24 Oct 16:15 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.75 | 57.1% | 24 Oct 16:15 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.05 | 48.8% | 24 Oct 16:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.60 | 38.5% | 24 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.33 | 30.0% | 24 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.65 | 37.7% | 24 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.77 | 56.5% | 24 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.00 | 50.0% | 24 Oct 06:15 |