OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to 🎾 Tennis on 2026-11-09
🎾 ATP Challenger Matsuyama, Japan Men Singles · Monday 09 November 2026, 01:00 UTC · finished
Keegan Smith 1.20 0 - 2 1.80 Yu Hsiou Hsu
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Home win 55.6%56%-0.6%✗ miss
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeAway
markov55.9%44.1%
poisson37.0%35.2%
xgboost46.5%53.4%
logistic57.2%42.8%
Inputs the models saw
Keegan SmithYu Hsiou Hsu
Elo (pre-match)16021585
Surface Elo16021585
Form, last 5 (PPG)1.201.80
Form trend0.300.30
Season points per game1.501.50
Season goals for / game1.331.25
Season goals against / game1.421.25
Rest days128
Head-to-head (last 10)0 W2 W · 0 D
Keegan Smith: last 5
02 NovAJake Delaney1 - 2L
27 OctAYu Hsiou Hsu1 - 2L
26 OctHYu Hsiou Hsu1 - 2L
22 OctHFajing Sun2 - 1W
20 OctHMax Purcell2 - 0W
Yu Hsiou Hsu: last 5
02 NovAOmar Jasika1 - 2L
31 OctAYaroslav Demin1 - 2L
30 OctAMert Alkaya2 - 0W
27 OctHKeegan Smith2 - 1W
26 OctAYaroslav Demin1 - 2L
Head to head
27 Oct 2026Yu Hsiou Hsu2 - 1Keegan Smith
26 Oct 2026Keegan Smith1 - 2Yu Hsiou Hsu
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
SportyBet1X2away1.9750.8%08 Nov 06:15
SportyBet1X2home1.7856.2%08 Nov 06:15
Generated 2026-11-12 21:54 UTC