OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-10-28
⚽ England EFL Cup · Wednesday 28 October 2026, 20:00 UTC · finished
Liverpool 2.00 1 - 1 1.40 Chelsea
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Home win 55.4%45%+10.8%✗ miss
DCHome or draw 80.9%69%+11.8%✓ hit
DNBHome (DNB) 73.4%59%+14.7%void
O/U 2.5Over 2.5 55.7%67%-11.4%✗ miss
BTTSBTTS yes 56.4%no line✓ hit
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson53.4%22.3%24.3%
xgboost56.6%24.5%19.0%
logistic57.4%25.7%16.9%
Inputs the models saw
LiverpoolChelsea
Elo (pre-match)18061719
Surface Elo18061719
Form, last 5 (PPG)2.001.40
Form trend-0.40-0.10
Season points per game1.501.50
Season goals for / game1.501.50
Season goals against / game1.501.50
Rest days34
Head-to-head (last 10)2 W2 W · 6 D
Liverpool: last 5
25 OctHBrighton2 - 0W
25 OctHBrighton2 - 0W
20 OctHVillarreal4 - 3W
17 OctABrentford2 - 1W
17 OctABrentford2 - 1W
Chelsea: last 5
24 OctHTottenham0 - 2L
24 OctHTottenham0 - 2L
17 OctAEverton2 - 0W
17 OctAEverton2 - 0W
13 OctAReading2 - 0W
Head to head
09 May 2026Liverpool1 - 1Chelsea
04 Oct 2025Chelsea2 - 1Liverpool
04 May 2025Chelsea3 - 1Liverpool
20 Oct 2024Liverpool2 - 1Chelsea
31 Jan 2024Liverpool4 - 1Chelsea
13 Aug 2023Chelsea1 - 1Liverpool
04 Apr 2023Chelsea0 - 0Liverpool
21 Jan 2023Liverpool0 - 0Chelsea
02 Jan 2022Chelsea2 - 2Liverpool
28 Aug 2021Liverpool1 - 1Chelsea
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
SportyBet1X2away3.1831.4%28 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2draw4.1024.4%28 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2home2.1746.1%28 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5over1.4967.1%28 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5under2.7037.0%28 Oct 06:15
Generated 2026-10-30 17:10 UTC