| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 62.8% | 62% | +0.3% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or draw | 86.7% | 84% | +2.7% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 82.3% | 79% | +3.3% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65.6% | 65% | +1.1% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 56.3% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 66.0% | 20.4% | 13.7% |
| xgboost | 68.4% | 19.9% | 11.7% |
| logistic | 63.5% | 21.9% | 14.7% |
| Marseille | Le Havre | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1703 | 1532 |
| Surface Elo | 1703 | 1532 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 0.20 |
| Form trend | -0.90 | 0.10 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 3.50 | 0.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| Rest days | 7 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 6 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 22 Oct | A | Sturm Graz | 0 - 1 | L |
| 18 Oct | A | Angers | 5 - 2 | W |
| 18 Oct | A | Angers | 5 - 2 | W |
| 15 Oct | H | Olympiacos | 0 - 1 | L |
| 11 Oct | A | Troyes | 2 - 0 | W |
| 18 Oct | H | Auxerre | 1 - 3 | L |
| 18 Oct | H | Auxerre | 1 - 3 | L |
| 10 Oct | A | Lille | 0 - 1 | L |
| 10 Oct | A | Lille | 0 - 1 | L |
| 19 Sep | A | Toulouse | 2 - 3 | L |
| 10 May 2026 | Le Havre | 0 - 1 | Marseille |
| 18 Oct 2025 | Marseille | 6 - 2 | Le Havre |
| 10 May 2025 | Le Havre | 1 - 3 | Marseille |
| 05 Jan 2025 | Marseille | 5 - 1 | Le Havre |
| 19 May 2024 | Le Havre | 1 - 2 | Marseille |
| 08 Oct 2023 | Marseille | 3 - 0 | Le Havre |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 5.32 | 18.8% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 4.65 | 21.5% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.60 | 62.5% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.55 | 64.5% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.45 | 40.8% | 23 Oct 06:15 |