| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 47.5% | 42% | +5.2% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or away | 75.4% | 79% | -3.5% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 61.7% | 57% | +4.8% | ✗ miss |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.7% | 65% | -10.1% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 53.1% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 43.4% | 26.8% | 29.8% |
| xgboost | 46.2% | 25.0% | 28.8% |
| logistic | 43.7% | 29.2% | 27.1% |
| Vitesse | FC Emmen | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1426 | 1422 |
| Surface Elo | 1426 | 1422 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | -0.20 | 0.60 |
| Season points per game | 1.40 | 2.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.20 | 1.75 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.40 | 0.50 |
| Rest days | 887 | 1244 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 4 W | 1 W · 3 D |
| 16 Oct | A | PSV Eindhoven | 1 - 0 | W |
| 09 Oct | A | Volendam | 0 - 2 | L |
| 03 Oct | H | NAC Breda | 2 - 2 | D |
| 26 Sep | A | Heracles | 0 - 2 | L |
| 19 Sep | H | PSV Eindhoven | 3 - 1 | W |
| 17 Oct | H | Almere City | 2 - 1 | W |
| 09 Oct | A | FC Dordrecht | 3 - 0 | W |
| 03 Oct | A | Waalwijk | 1 - 1 | D |
| 26 Sep | H | TOP Oss | 1 - 0 | W |
| 28 May | A | Utrecht | 2 - 3 | L |
| 04 Feb 2023 | FC Emmen | 2 - 2 | Vitesse |
| 22 Oct 2022 | Vitesse | 2 - 1 | FC Emmen |
| 16 Jan 2021 | FC Emmen | 1 - 4 | Vitesse |
| 08 Nov 2020 | Vitesse | 3 - 1 | FC Emmen |
| 26 Jan 2020 | Vitesse | 1 - 1 | FC Emmen |
| 03 Nov 2019 | FC Emmen | 2 - 1 | Vitesse |
| 24 Feb 2019 | FC Emmen | 0 - 3 | Vitesse |
| 01 Dec 2018 | Vitesse | 1 - 1 | FC Emmen |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.90 | 34.5% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.60 | 27.8% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.30 | 43.5% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.55 | 64.5% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.40 | 41.7% | 23 Oct 06:15 |