| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 59.0% | 55% | +4.3% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 44.7% | 55.3% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 38.3% | 61.7% |
| logistic | 44.9% | 55.1% |
| Katie Volynets | Elise Mertens | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1545 | 1692 |
| Surface Elo | 1545 | 1692 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | 0.90 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| Rest days | 2 | 8 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 01 Oct | H | Robin Montgomery | 2 - 0 | W |
| 30 Sep | A | Elise Mertens | 1 - 2 | L |
| 30 Sep | H | Robin Montgomery | 2 - 0 | W |
| 23 Sep | A | Kamilla Rakhimova | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep | H | Elvina Kalieva | 2 - 0 | W |
| 30 Sep | H | Qinwen Zheng | 0 - 2 | L |
| 30 Sep | H | Iga Swiatek | 2 - 0 | W |
| 30 Sep | A | Coco Gauff | 2 - 0 | W |
| 30 Sep | H | Jelena Ostapenko | 2 - 1 | W |
| 30 Sep | H | Katie Volynets | 2 - 1 | W |
| 30 Sep 2026 | Elise Mertens | 2 - 1 | Katie Volynets |
| 05 Aug 2024 | Elise Mertens | 2 - 0 | Katie Volynets |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.83 | 54.6% | 02 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.05 | 48.8% | 02 Oct 06:15 |