| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 44.5% | 46% | -1.4% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or draw | 73.2% | 76% | -3.1% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 60.8% | 64% | -3.5% | void |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 48.9% | 56% | -7.6% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 53.8% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 39.5% | 30.3% | 30.1% |
| xgboost | 46.7% | 25.9% | 27.4% |
| logistic | 42.4% | 30.1% | 27.5% |
| Padova | Empoli | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1427 | 1371 |
| Surface Elo | 1427 | 1371 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| Form trend | -0.50 | -0.10 |
| Season points per game | 1.17 | 0.33 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 1.17 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.17 | 2.17 |
| Rest days | 6 | 6 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 07 Nov | A | Brescia | 0 - 0 | D |
| 31 Oct | A | Catanzaro | 1 - 1 | D |
| 31 Oct | A | Catanzaro | 1 - 1 | D |
| 31 Oct | H | Mantova | 1 - 1 | D |
| 27 Oct | H | Sudtirol | 2 - 0 | W |
| 01 Nov | H | Juve Stabia | 2 - 2 | D |
| 01 Nov | H | Juve Stabia | 2 - 2 | D |
| 28 Oct | H | Perugia | 1 - 0 | W |
| 27 Oct | A | Cesena | 1 - 2 | L |
| 27 Oct | A | Cesena | 1 - 2 | L |
| 12 Apr 2026 | Padova | 1 - 0 | Empoli |
| 23 Aug 2025 | Empoli | 3 - 1 | Padova |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.30 | 30.3% | 06 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.30 | 30.3% | 06 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.20 | 45.5% | 06 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.98 | 50.5% | 06 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.77 | 56.5% | 06 Nov 06:15 |