| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 49.1% | 61% | -12.2% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or draw | 74.7% | 87% | -12.3% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 65.4% | 81% | -15.5% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 53.6% | 54% | -0.8% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 53.3% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 46.0% | 27.1% | 26.9% |
| xgboost | 43.7% | 30.0% | 26.2% |
| logistic | 52.5% | 25.4% | 22.0% |
| Almeria | Burgos | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1571 | 1587 |
| Surface Elo | 1571 | 1587 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.40 | 2.20 |
| Form trend | -0.60 | -0.60 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.00 | 0.50 |
| Rest days | 6 | 5 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 3 W | 2 W · 1 D |
| 27 Sep | A | Mallorca | 1 - 0 | W |
| 27 Sep | A | Mallorca | 1 - 0 | W |
| 27 Sep | H | Atletico Porcuna CF | 4 - 0 | W |
| 20 Sep | H | Celta B | 2 - 0 | W |
| 20 Sep | H | Celta B | 2 - 0 | W |
| 27 Sep | H | Eldense | 1 - 0 | W |
| 27 Sep | H | Eldense | 1 - 0 | W |
| 27 Sep | A | Cultural Leonesa | 0 - 0 | D |
| 20 Sep | A | Las Palmas | 2 - 1 | W |
| 20 Sep | A | Las Palmas | 2 - 1 | W |
| 09 May 2026 | Burgos | 0 - 0 | Almeria |
| 14 Dec 2025 | Almeria | 1 - 2 | Burgos |
| 21 Mar 2025 | Burgos | 3 - 1 | Almeria |
| 05 Oct 2024 | Almeria | 2 - 0 | Burgos |
| 30 Apr 2022 | Burgos | 0 - 2 | Almeria |
| 07 Nov 2021 | Almeria | 2 - 0 | Burgos |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 5.25 | 19.1% | 02 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.90 | 25.6% | 02 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.63 | 61.4% | 02 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.90 | 52.6% | 02 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.84 | 54.4% | 02 Oct 06:15 |