| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 46.1% | 39% | +7.3% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or away | 74.8% | 78% | -2.8% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 58.7% | 52% | +6.2% | ✗ miss |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.1% | 63% | -1.8% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 58.9% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 42.0% | 25.8% | 32.2% |
| xgboost | 40.0% | 30.3% | 29.7% |
| logistic | 36.5% | 27.2% | 36.2% |
| Excelsior | Groningen | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1520 | 1551 |
| Surface Elo | 1520 | 1551 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| Form trend | 0.70 | -0.70 |
| Season points per game | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 2.00 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 21 | 22 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 3 W | 5 W · 0 D |
| 22 Sep | A | ZSV Sportlust 46 | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Sep | A | Ajax | 2 - 2 | D |
| 19 Sep | A | Ajax | 2 - 2 | D |
| 13 Sep | H | Utrecht | 1 - 2 | L |
| 08 Sep | A | Nijmegen | 2 - 2 | D |
| 18 Sep | H | Zwolle | 3 - 0 | W |
| 12 Sep | A | Go Ahead Eagles | 1 - 1 | D |
| 06 Sep | H | Twente | 2 - 2 | D |
| 28 Aug | H | For Sittard | 2 - 3 | L |
| 23 Aug | A | PSV Eindhoven | 1 - 5 | L |
| 02 May 2026 | Groningen | 2 - 3 | Excelsior |
| 05 Dec 2025 | Excelsior | 0 - 2 | Groningen |
| 25 Feb 2023 | Groningen | 3 - 0 | Excelsior |
| 08 Jan 2023 | Excelsior | 1 - 0 | Groningen |
| 06 Apr 2019 | Groningen | 1 - 0 | Excelsior |
| 02 Nov 2018 | Excelsior | 2 - 4 | Groningen |
| 29 Apr 2018 | Groningen | 4 - 0 | Excelsior |
| 17 Dec 2017 | Excelsior | 2 - 0 | Groningen |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.58 | 38.8% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.65 | 27.4% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.58 | 38.8% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.59 | 62.9% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.40 | 41.7% | 09 Oct 06:15 |