| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 63.1% | 54% | +8.7% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or draw | 87.0% | 81% | +6.0% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 81.6% | 72% | +9.7% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65.2% | 65% | +0.7% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 60.7% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 74.3% | 17.1% | 8.6% |
| xgboost | 72.6% | 15.9% | 11.5% |
| logistic | 73.3% | 18.4% | 8.3% |
| Napoli | Pisa | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1786 | 1431 |
| Surface Elo | 1786 | 1431 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| Form trend | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| Season points per game | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| Rest days | 19 | 19 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 2 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 20 Sep | A | Fiorentina | 1 - 1 | D |
| 19 Sep | A | Ascoli | 2 - 2 | D |
| 13 Sep | H | Bologna | 1 - 0 | W |
| 05 Sep | A | Inter | 2 - 3 | L |
| 30 Aug | H | Como | 1 - 2 | L |
| 03 Oct | A | Monaco | 0 - 2 | L |
| 20 Sep | A | Mantova | 2 - 2 | D |
| 20 Sep | A | Mantova | 2 - 2 | D |
| 19 Sep | H | Spezia | 0 - 3 | L |
| 11 Sep | H | Virtus Entella | 1 - 4 | L |
| 17 May 2026 | Pisa | 0 - 3 | Napoli |
| 22 Sep 2025 | Napoli | 3 - 2 | Pisa |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.50 | 28.6% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.75 | 26.7% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.84 | 54.4% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.55 | 64.5% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.25 | 44.4% | 10 Oct 06:15 |