| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 50.1% | 53% | -2.8% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Draw or away | 74.6% | 80% | -5.3% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 64.5% | 71% | -6.5% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 52.4% | 48% | +4.7% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 53.5% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 33.4% | 26.4% | 40.2% |
| xgboost | 24.7% | 29.6% | 45.7% |
| logistic | 26.7% | 29.3% | 44.0% |
| Cheltenham | Salford | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1442 | 1528 |
| Surface Elo | 1442 | 1528 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.60 | 2.60 |
| Form trend | 0.20 | -0.20 |
| Season points per game | 1.33 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.33 | 0.33 |
| Rest days | 7 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 4 W | 1 W · 2 D |
| 03 Oct | A | Accrington | 0 - 2 | L |
| 03 Oct | A | Accrington | 0 - 2 | L |
| 26 Sep | H | Chesterfield | 2 - 1 | W |
| 26 Sep | H | Chesterfield | 2 - 1 | W |
| 22 Sep | H | Exeter | 2 - 2 | D |
| 06 Oct | A | Accrington | 1 - 1 | D |
| 03 Oct | H | Fleetwood Town | 1 - 0 | W |
| 03 Oct | H | Fleetwood Town | 1 - 0 | W |
| 26 Sep | A | Oldham | 4 - 1 | W |
| 26 Sep | A | Oldham | 4 - 1 | W |
| 21 Feb 2026 | Cheltenham | 3 - 2 | Salford |
| 29 Aug 2025 | Salford | 1 - 1 | Cheltenham |
| 25 Jan 2025 | Cheltenham | 2 - 1 | Salford |
| 14 Sep 2024 | Salford | 2 - 1 | Cheltenham |
| 20 Mar 2021 | Cheltenham | 2 - 0 | Salford |
| 12 Dec 2020 | Salford | 0 - 0 | Cheltenham |
| 14 Sep 2019 | Salford | 0 - 2 | Cheltenham |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.89 | 52.9% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.70 | 27.0% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 3.80 | 26.3% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.69 | 59.2% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.10 | 47.6% | 09 Oct 06:15 |