| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 46.2% | 45% | +0.9% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or away | 75.1% | 74% | +0.7% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 59.4% | 63% | -4.0% | ✗ miss |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 54.4% | 51% | +3.0% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 49.0% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 41.2% | 26.2% | 32.6% |
| xgboost | 43.4% | 27.3% | 29.3% |
| logistic | 42.6% | 28.5% | 28.9% |
| Alverca | Arouca | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1536 | 1575 |
| Surface Elo | 1536 | 1575 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| Form trend | -0.70 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 11 | 12 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 18 Oct | A | Tondela | 0 - 0 | D |
| 12 Oct | A | Famalicao | 4 - 1 | W |
| 11 Oct | A | FC Oliveira do Hospital | 1 - 3 | L |
| 19 Sep | H | Rio Ave | 1 - 0 | W |
| 19 Sep | H | Rio Ave | 1 - 0 | W |
| 18 Oct | A | Belenenses | 3 - 3 | D |
| 11 Oct | H | Estrela | 1 - 0 | W |
| 11 Oct | H | Estrela | 1 - 0 | W |
| 19 Sep | A | Sporting | 2 - 2 | D |
| 19 Sep | A | Sp Lisbon | 2 - 2 | D |
| 24 Apr 2026 | Alverca | 2 - 1 | Arouca |
| 14 Dec 2025 | Arouca | 1 - 0 | Alverca |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.48 | 28.7% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.42 | 29.2% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.22 | 45.1% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.89 | 52.9% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.95 | 51.3% | 23 Oct 06:15 |