| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 50.5% | 53% | -2.1% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or draw | 76.9% | 78% | -1.5% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 66.4% | 70% | -3.6% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.7% | 61% | -1.9% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 57.5% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 51.6% | 23.6% | 24.8% |
| xgboost | 46.7% | 26.5% | 26.8% |
| logistic | 49.4% | 27.0% | 23.7% |
| Falkirk | Kilmarnock | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1640 | 1607 |
| Surface Elo | 1640 | 1607 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| Form trend | -0.10 | -0.10 |
| Season points per game | 1.33 | 1.33 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.33 | 1.67 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.33 | 2.00 |
| Rest days | 7 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 3 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 17 Oct | A | Hibernian | 2 - 1 | W |
| 17 Oct | A | Hibernian | 2 - 1 | W |
| 10 Oct | H | Dundee | 1 - 2 | L |
| 10 Oct | H | Dundee | 1 - 2 | L |
| 19 Sep | A | St Johnstone | 1 - 1 | D |
| 17 Oct | H | Motherwell | 3 - 2 | W |
| 17 Oct | H | Motherwell | 3 - 2 | W |
| 10 Oct | A | Rangers | 1 - 3 | L |
| 10 Oct | A | Rangers | 1 - 3 | L |
| 26 Sep | A | Hamilton | 0 - 3 | L |
| 28 Feb 2026 | Falkirk | 5 - 1 | Kilmarnock |
| 20 Dec 2025 | Kilmarnock | 0 - 1 | Falkirk |
| 01 Nov 2025 | Falkirk | 3 - 1 | Kilmarnock |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.92 | 25.5% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.88 | 25.8% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.90 | 52.6% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.65 | 60.6% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.25 | 44.4% | 23 Oct 06:15 |