| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 66.8% | 80% | -13.2% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 37.8% | 62.2% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 14.7% | 85.2% |
| logistic | 40.8% | 59.2% |
| Francesco Maestrelli | Oliver Tarvet | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1569 | 1670 |
| Surface Elo | 1569 | 1670 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| Form trend | 0.90 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.25 | 2.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.25 | 0.00 |
| Rest days | 14 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 05 Oct | H | Oliver Tarvet | 1 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep | A | Andrea Guerrieri | 1 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep | A | Andrea Guerrieri | 1 - 2 | L |
| 18 Sep | H | Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg | 0 - 2 | L |
| 17 Sep | H | Yanis Ghazouani Durand | 2 - 1 | W |
| 05 Oct | A | Diego Dedura Palomero | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Oct | A | Laslo Djere | 0 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | A | Francesco Maestrelli | 2 - 1 | W |
| 04 Oct | A | Mathys Erhard | 2 - 0 | W |
| 24 Aug | A | Charles Broom | 1 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct 2026 | Francesco Maestrelli | 1 - 2 | Oliver Tarvet |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.25 | 80.0% | 06 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 3.70 | 27.0% | 06 Oct 06:15 |