| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 45.0% | 58% | -13.0% | |
| DC | Home or away | 73.4% | 79% | -5.7% | |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 59.5% | 78% | -18.2% | |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 55.0% | 55% | -0.3% | |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 52.2% | no line |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 33.0% | 30.3% | 36.7% |
| xgboost | 47.5% | 27.8% | 24.7% |
| logistic | 43.5% | 29.0% | 27.5% |
| Port Vale | Rochdale | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1426 | 1522 |
| Surface Elo | 1426 | 1522 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| Form trend | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| Season points per game | 1.40 | 1.57 |
| Season goals for / game | 0.60 | 1.43 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 1.71 |
| Rest days | 6 | 6 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 1 W · 1 D |
| 27 Oct | H | Manchester City | 5 - 0 | W |
| 24 Oct | A | York | 0 - 2 | L |
| 24 Oct | A | York | 0 - 2 | L |
| 20 Oct | A | Gillingham | 1 - 1 | D |
| 20 Oct | A | Gillingham | 1 - 1 | D |
| 24 Oct | H | Accrington | 0 - 5 | L |
| 24 Oct | H | Accrington | 0 - 5 | L |
| 20 Oct | H | Grimsby | 2 - 2 | D |
| 20 Oct | H | Grimsby | 2 - 2 | D |
| 17 Oct | A | Crewe | 2 - 3 | L |
| 22 Feb 2022 | Rochdale | 1 - 1 | Port Vale |
| 04 Sep 2021 | Port Vale | 2 - 3 | Rochdale |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 4.90 | 20.4% | 30 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.75 | 26.7% | 30 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.70 | 58.8% | 30 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.93 | 51.8% | 30 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.81 | 55.2% | 30 Oct 06:15 |