| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win selected | 69.3% | 65% | +4.8% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 73.6% | 26.4% |
| logistic | 58.0% | 42.0% |
| markov | abstained: no serve/return ratings for this match | |
| Dali Blanch | Matthew William Donald | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1558 | 1471 |
| Surface Elo | 1558 | 1471 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | -0.60 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 2 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 21 Sep | H | Sandro Kopp | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep | H | Marvin Moeller | 1 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep | H | Matthew William Donald | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep | H | Sandro Kopp | 2 - 0 | W |
| 15 Sep | H | Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo | 0 - 2 | L |
| 22 Sep | H | Gianluca Cadenasso | 2 - 1 | W |
| 21 Sep | A | Dali Blanch | 0 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep | A | Gianluca Cadenasso | 2 - 1 | W |
| 29 Jun | A | Francisco Comesana | 0 - 2 | L |
| 27 Apr | A | Darwin Blanch | 0 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep 2026 | Dali Blanch | 2 - 0 | Matthew William Donald |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.35 | 42.5% | 23 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.55 | 64.5% | 23 Sep 06:15 |