| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 47.6% | 43% | +5.0% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or away | 75.3% | 77% | -1.9% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 62.2% | 58% | +4.3% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.9% | 62% | +0.4% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 62.4% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 41.9% | 26.2% | 31.8% |
| xgboost | 50.6% | 25.9% | 23.5% |
| logistic | 42.0% | 28.0% | 30.0% |
| For Sittard | Excelsior | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1536 | 1492 |
| Surface Elo | 1536 | 1492 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| Season points per game | 1.67 | 1.22 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.78 | 1.78 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.89 | 2.00 |
| Rest days | 6 | 8 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 4 W | 2 W · 2 D |
| 18 Oct | A | Nijmegen | 2 - 2 | D |
| 10 Oct | H | Twente | 1 - 1 | D |
| 19 Sep | A | Willem II | 1 - 0 | W |
| 12 Sep | H | Ajax | 1 - 5 | L |
| 06 Sep | A | Den Haag | 3 - 2 | W |
| 16 Oct | A | Heerenveen | 0 - 4 | L |
| 16 Oct | A | Heerenveen | 0 - 4 | L |
| 11 Oct | H | Groningen | 1 - 5 | L |
| 11 Oct | H | Groningen | 1 - 5 | L |
| 22 Sep | A | ZSV Sportlust 46 | 2 - 0 | W |
| 20 Feb 2026 | For Sittard | 2 - 1 | Excelsior |
| 19 Oct 2025 | Excelsior | 1 - 0 | For Sittard |
| 03 Mar 2024 | For Sittard | 5 - 2 | Excelsior |
| 26 Aug 2023 | Excelsior | 2 - 2 | For Sittard |
| 21 May 2023 | Excelsior | 3 - 0 | For Sittard |
| 17 Sep 2022 | For Sittard | 1 - 0 | Excelsior |
| 10 Feb 2019 | For Sittard | 4 - 1 | Excelsior |
| 11 Aug 2018 | Excelsior | 1 - 1 | For Sittard |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 2.45 | 40.8% | 25 Oct 11:15 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 3.40 | 29.4% | 25 Oct 11:15 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 2.80 | 35.7% | 25 Oct 11:15 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.75 | 57.1% | 25 Oct 11:15 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.05 | 48.8% | 25 Oct 11:15 |