| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 63.9% | 37% | +26.7% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or away | 85.9% | 76% | +9.7% | ✗ miss |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 78.0% | 52% | +25.7% | void |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.0% | 51% | +3.1% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 48.4% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 36.3% | 27.3% | 36.4% |
| xgboost | 59.7% | 21.8% | 18.5% |
| logistic | 49.1% | 26.1% | 24.9% |
| Mantova | Pisa | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1489 | 1426 |
| Surface Elo | 1489 | 1426 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | -0.40 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 2.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.75 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 6 | 8 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 2 W · 0 D |
| 13 Sep | H | Sampdoria | 2 - 0 | W |
| 06 Sep | A | Cesena | 1 - 1 | D |
| 30 Aug | H | Empoli | 3 - 1 | W |
| 22 Aug | A | Carrarese | 2 - 1 | W |
| 08 May | A | Frosinone | 0 - 5 | L |
| 19 Sep | H | Spezia | 0 - 3 | L |
| 11 Sep | H | Virtus Entella | 1 - 4 | L |
| 06 Sep | A | Juve Stabia | 3 - 0 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | Catanzaro | 2 - 1 | W |
| 23 Aug | H | Padova | 0 - 1 | L |
| 16 Mar 2025 | Pisa | 3 - 1 | Mantova |
| 07 Dec 2024 | Mantova | 2 - 3 | Pisa |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 2.55 | 39.2% | 20 Sep 16:15 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 3.20 | 31.2% | 20 Sep 16:15 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 2.65 | 37.7% | 20 Sep 16:15 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.95 | 51.3% | 20 Sep 16:15 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.85 | 54.0% | 20 Sep 16:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.55 | 39.2% | 20 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.33 | 30.0% | 20 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.75 | 36.4% | 20 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.95 | 51.3% | 20 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.84 | 54.4% | 20 Sep 06:15 |