| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 59.9% | 60% | -0.4% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 53.7% | 46.3% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 60.0% | 40.0% |
| logistic | 63.2% | 36.8% |
| Alex Barrena | Samuele Pieri | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1579 | 1434 |
| Surface Elo | 1579 | 1434 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 10 | 45 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 15 Sep | H | Chazal, Maxime | 2 - 1 | W |
| 14 Sep | H | Carlo Alberto Caniato | 0 - 2 | L |
| 14 Sep | H | Juan Cruz Martin Manzano | 2 - 0 | W |
| 14 Sep | H | Samuele Pieri | 2 - 0 | W |
| 14 Sep | H | Maxime Chazal | 2 - 1 | W |
| 14 Sep | A | Alex Barrena | 0 - 2 | L |
| 14 Sep | A | Gabriele Piraino | 2 - 1 | W |
| 03 Aug | A | Gerard Campana Lee | 1 - 2 | L |
| 03 Aug | A | Pedro Boscardin Dias | 2 - 1 | W |
| 27 Jul | A | Federico Agustin Gomez | 0 - 2 | L |
| 14 Sep 2026 | Alex Barrena | 2 - 0 | Samuele Pieri |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.15 | 46.5% | 17 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.64 | 61.0% | 17 Sep 06:15 |