| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 82.1% | 85% | -3.3% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 76.5% | 23.5% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 79.7% | 20.3% |
| logistic | 79.1% | 20.9% |
| Thiago Seyboth Wild | Mateus Alves | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1767 | 1477 |
| Surface Elo | 1767 | 1477 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| Season points per game | 2.40 | 1.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.80 | 0.67 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.40 | 1.33 |
| Rest days | 2 | 8 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 2 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 12 Oct | A | Hugo Dellien | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | A | Francisco Comesana | 2 - 1 | W |
| 12 Oct | A | Nicolas Kicker | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | A | Carlos Maria Zarate | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | A | Mateus Alves | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | H | Bruno Fernandez | 2 - 1 | W |
| 12 Oct | H | Thiago Seyboth Wild | 0 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | H | Jose Pereira | 0 - 1 | L |
| 01 Oct | H | Gonzalo Villanueva | 0 - 2 | L |
| 29 Sep | A | Jose Pereira | 2 - 1 | W |
| 12 Oct 2026 | Mateus Alves | 0 - 2 | Thiago Seyboth Wild |
| 01 May 2023 | Mateus Alves | 0 - 2 | Thiago Seyboth Wild |
| 06 Mar 2023 | Mateus Alves | 1 - 2 | Thiago Seyboth Wild |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 4.65 | 21.5% | 13 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.17 | 85.5% | 13 Oct 06:15 |