| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 51.2% | 60% | -8.4% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or draw | 78.8% | 87% | -7.8% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 70.1% | 79% | -9.1% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 53.3% | 49% | +4.0% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 54.3% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 38.0% | 31.4% | 30.6% |
| xgboost | 43.4% | 40.3% | 16.3% |
| logistic | 54.7% | 26.1% | 19.2% |
| Bristol Rvs | Exeter | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1481 | 1403 |
| Surface Elo | 1481 | 1403 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | 0.90 | -0.10 |
| Season points per game | 1.71 | 0.86 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.71 | 0.57 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.57 | 0.71 |
| Rest days | 7 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 5 W · 2 D |
| 19 Sep | A | Gillingham | 0 - 3 | L |
| 12 Sep | A | Grimsby | 0 - 2 | L |
| 05 Sep | H | Rotherham | 1 - 0 | W |
| 01 Sep | H | Colchester | 2 - 0 | W |
| 29 Aug | A | Crawley Town | 2 - 0 | W |
| 22 Sep | A | Cheltenham | 2 - 2 | D |
| 19 Sep | H | Tranmere | 0 - 0 | D |
| 19 Sep | H | Tranmere | 0 - 0 | D |
| 12 Sep | A | Port Vale | 0 - 1 | L |
| 05 Sep | H | Walsall | 0 - 0 | D |
| 12 Apr 2025 | Bristol Rvs | 1 - 2 | Exeter |
| 26 Dec 2024 | Exeter | 3 - 1 | Bristol Rvs |
| 03 Feb 2024 | Exeter | 0 - 1 | Bristol Rvs |
| 23 Jan 2024 | Bristol Rvs | 0 - 1 | Exeter |
| 29 Dec 2022 | Bristol Rvs | 3 - 4 | Exeter |
| 01 Oct 2022 | Exeter | 2 - 2 | Bristol Rvs |
| 26 Feb 2022 | Bristol Rvs | 1 - 1 | Exeter |
| 21 Aug 2021 | Exeter | 4 - 1 | Bristol Rvs |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 4.75 | 21.1% | 26 Sep 15:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 3.50 | 28.6% | 26 Sep 15:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 1.71 | 58.5% | 26 Sep 15:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 2.05 | 48.8% | 26 Sep 15:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.80 | 55.6% | 26 Sep 15:00 |