OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge

Back to 🎾 Tennis on 2026-10-03

🎾 tennis_atp_japan_open · Saturday 03 October 2026, 08:10 UTC · scheduled

Ugo Humbert 1.20 08:10 1.80 Jiri Lehecka

Our markets (latest run)

Market	Most likely	Model	Bookmaker	Edge	Result
1X2	Away win	65.2%	62%	+2.7%

Model breakdown (1X2)

Model	Home	Away
poisson	37.0%	35.3%
xgboost	27.2%	72.8%
logistic	43.7%	56.3%
markov	abstained: unknown match format (best_of=0)

Inputs the models saw

	Ugo Humbert	Jiri Lehecka
Elo (pre-match)	1856	1954
Surface Elo	1856	1954
Form, last 5 (PPG)	1.20	1.80
Form trend	0.00	-0.30
Season points per game	1.50	1.50
Season goals for / game	1.50	1.50
Season goals against / game	1.50	1.50
Rest days	2	3
Head-to-head (last 10)	1 W	0 W · 0 D

Ugo Humbert: last 5

03 Oct	A	Jiri Lehecka	1 - 2	L
01 Oct	A	Brandon Nakashima	2 - 0	W
01 Oct	A	Brandon Nakashima	2 - 0	W
16 Aug	A	Michael Zheng	0 - 2	L
06 Aug	A	Daniel Merida	0 - 2	L

Jiri Lehecka: last 5

03 Oct	H	Ugo Humbert	2 - 1	W
30 Sep	H	Zizou Bergs	2 - 1	W
30 Sep	H	Zizou Bergs	2 - 1	W
04 Sep	H	Stefanos Tsitsipas	1 - 3	L
02 Sep	H	Toby Samuel	3 - 0	W

Head to head

03 Oct 2026	Jiri Lehecka	2 - 1	Ugo Humbert
24 Feb 2025	Jiri Lehecka	0 - 2	Ugo Humbert

Bookmaker lines

Book	Market	Outcome	Odds	Implied	As of
888sport	h2h	Jiri Lehecka	1.61	62.1%	03 Oct 06:01
888sport	h2h	Ugo Humbert	2.30	43.5%	03 Oct 06:01
BetAnything	h2h	Jiri Lehecka	1.59	62.9%	03 Oct 06:01
BetAnything	h2h	Ugo Humbert	2.45	40.8%	03 Oct 06:01
Betclic (FR)	h2h	Jiri Lehecka	1.60	62.5%	03 Oct 06:01
Betclic (FR)	h2h	Ugo Humbert	2.30	43.5%	03 Oct 06:01
Betfair sharp	h2h	Jiri Lehecka	1.66	60.2%	03 Oct 06:01
Betfair sharp	h2h	Ugo Humbert	2.48	40.3%	03 Oct 06:01
Betfair sharp	h2h_lay	Jiri Lehecka	1.68	59.5%	03 Oct 06:01
Betfair sharp	h2h_lay	Ugo Humbert	2.50	40.0%	03 Oct 06:01
BetOnline.ag	h2h	Jiri Lehecka	1.64	61.0%	03 Oct 06:01
BetOnline.ag	h2h	Ugo Humbert	2.36	42.4%	03 Oct 06:01
Betsson	h2h	Jiri Lehecka	1.58	63.3%	03 Oct 06:01
Betsson	h2h	Ugo Humbert	2.35	42.5%	03 Oct 06:01
Coolbet	h2h	Jiri Lehecka	1.59	62.9%	03 Oct 06:01
Coolbet	h2h	Ugo Humbert	2.37	42.2%	03 Oct 06:01
GTbets	h2h	Jiri Lehecka	1.53	65.4%	03 Oct 06:01
GTbets	h2h	Ugo Humbert	2.53	39.5%	03 Oct 06:01
Marathon Bet	h2h	Jiri Lehecka	1.57	63.7%	03 Oct 06:01
Marathon Bet	h2h	Ugo Humbert	2.39	41.8%	03 Oct 06:01
Matchbook	h2h	Jiri Lehecka	1.66	60.2%	03 Oct 06:01
Matchbook	h2h	Ugo Humbert	2.48	40.3%	03 Oct 06:01
Matchbook	h2h_lay	Jiri Lehecka	1.68	59.5%	03 Oct 06:01
Matchbook	h2h_lay	Ugo Humbert	2.50	40.0%	03 Oct 06:01
Nordic Bet	h2h	Jiri Lehecka	1.58	63.3%	03 Oct 06:01
Nordic Bet	h2h	Ugo Humbert	2.35	42.5%	03 Oct 06:01
Pinnacle sharp	h2h	Jiri Lehecka	1.65	60.6%	03 Oct 06:01
Pinnacle sharp	h2h	Ugo Humbert	2.39	41.8%	03 Oct 06:01
PMU (FR)	h2h	Jiri Lehecka	1.49	67.1%	03 Oct 06:01
PMU (FR)	h2h	Ugo Humbert	2.35	42.5%	03 Oct 06:01
SportyBet	1X2	away	1.60	62.5%	03 Oct 06:15
SportyBet	1X2	home	2.40	41.7%	03 Oct 06:15
Tipico	h2h	Jiri Lehecka	1.52	65.8%	03 Oct 06:01
Tipico	h2h	Ugo Humbert	2.35	42.5%	03 Oct 06:01
Unibet (FR)	h2h	Jiri Lehecka	1.58	63.3%	03 Oct 06:01
Unibet (FR)	h2h	Ugo Humbert	2.35	42.5%	03 Oct 06:01
Unibet (NL)	h2h	Jiri Lehecka	1.55	64.5%	03 Oct 06:01
Unibet (NL)	h2h	Ugo Humbert	2.48	40.3%	03 Oct 06:01
Unibet (SE)	h2h	Jiri Lehecka	1.55	64.5%	03 Oct 06:01
Unibet (SE)	h2h	Ugo Humbert	2.48	40.3%	03 Oct 06:01
William Hill	h2h	Jiri Lehecka	1.62	61.7%	03 Oct 06:01
William Hill	h2h	Ugo Humbert	2.30	43.5%	03 Oct 06:01
Winamax (DE)	h2h	Jiri Lehecka	1.62	61.7%	03 Oct 06:01
Winamax (DE)	h2h	Ugo Humbert	2.35	42.5%	03 Oct 06:01
Winamax (FR)	h2h	Jiri Lehecka	1.58	63.3%	03 Oct 06:01
Winamax (FR)	h2h	Ugo Humbert	2.30	43.5%	03 Oct 06:01

Generated 2026-10-30 15:52 UTC