OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-10-10
⚽ League One · Saturday 10 October 2026, 11:30 UTC · finished
Plymouth 2.40 2 - 1 1.60 AFC Wimbledon
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Home win 60.4%68%-7.6%✓ hit
DCHome or draw 84.4%91%-6.2%✓ hit
DNBHome (DNB) 78.1%86%-8.1%✓ hit
O/U 2.5Under 2.5 51.3%45%+5.9%✗ miss
BTTSBTTS no 52.5%no line✗ miss
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson63.7%20.6%15.7%
xgboost68.8%18.0%13.2%
logistic70.8%19.4%9.9%
Inputs the models saw
PlymouthAFC Wimbledon
Elo (pre-match)15891447
Surface Elo15891447
Form, last 5 (PPG)2.401.60
Form trend0.300.00
Season points per game1.781.50
Season goals for / game1.780.75
Season goals against / game1.221.00
Rest days613
Head-to-head (last 10)7 W2 W · 1 D
Plymouth: last 5
06 OctANewport County2 - 2D
03 OctALeyton Orient2 - 0W
03 OctALeyton Orient2 - 0W
26 SepHBurton0 - 1L
26 SepHBurton0 - 1L
AFC Wimbledon: last 5
06 OctHBarnet0 - 0D
26 SepACambridge1 - 1D
26 SepACambridge1 - 1D
17 SepHMilton Keynes Dons0 - 0D
12 SepHDoncaster1 - 0W
Head to head
18 Apr 2026AFC Wimbledon1 - 3Plymouth
18 Oct 2025Plymouth1 - 2AFC Wimbledon
08 Mar 2022Plymouth2 - 0AFC Wimbledon
18 Sep 2021AFC Wimbledon0 - 1Plymouth
02 Apr 2021Plymouth1 - 0AFC Wimbledon
19 Sep 2020AFC Wimbledon4 - 4Plymouth
26 Dec 2018AFC Wimbledon2 - 1Plymouth
06 Oct 2018Plymouth1 - 0AFC Wimbledon
13 Feb 2018Plymouth4 - 2AFC Wimbledon
21 Oct 2017AFC Wimbledon0 - 1Plymouth
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
Bet3651X2away5.0020.0%10 Oct 12:30
Bet3651X2draw4.0025.0%10 Oct 12:30
Bet3651X2home1.5664.1%10 Oct 12:30
Bet365O/U 2.5over1.6759.9%10 Oct 12:30
Bet365O/U 2.5under2.1546.5%10 Oct 12:30
SportyBet1X2away6.2516.0%10 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2draw4.7021.3%10 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2home1.4867.6%10 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5over1.6461.0%10 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5under2.2045.5%10 Oct 06:15
Generated 2026-10-30 19:24 UTC