| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 80.0% | 87% | -6.9% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 68.2% | 31.8% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 82.8% | 17.1% |
| logistic | 77.3% | 22.7% |
| Daniil Medvedev | Dalibor Svrcina | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 2058 | 1740 |
| Surface Elo | 2058 | 1740 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.40 | 2.40 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | -0.60 |
| Season points per game | 2.67 | 2.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.78 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.44 | 0.83 |
| Rest days | 2 | 2 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 12 Oct | A | Dalibor Svrcina | 2 - 0 | W |
| 10 Oct | H | Jan Lennard Struff | 2 - 1 | W |
| 10 Oct | H | Rodrigo Alujas | 2 - 1 | W |
| 05 Oct | A | Novak Djokovic | 0 - 2 | L |
| 04 Oct | H | Francisco Cerundolo | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | H | Daniil Medvedev | 0 - 2 | L |
| 10 Oct | H | Tomas Martin Etcheverry | 2 - 1 | W |
| 10 Oct | H | Tomas Martin Etcheverry | 2 - 1 | W |
| 08 Oct | A | Cameron Norrie | 2 - 1 | W |
| 08 Oct | A | Rohan Murali | 2 - 1 | W |
| 12 Oct 2026 | Dalibor Svrcina | 0 - 2 | Daniil Medvedev |
| 01 Oct 2025 | Dalibor Svrcina | 0 - 2 | Daniil Medvedev |
| 27 Jul 2025 | Dalibor Svrcina | 0 - 2 | Daniil Medvedev |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 5.80 | 17.2% | 11 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.15 | 87.0% | 11 Oct 06:15 |