| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 79.8% | 97% | -17.2% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 18.7% | 81.3% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 10.5% | 89.4% |
| logistic | 15.5% | 84.5% |
| Juan Manuel Cerundolo | Carlos Alcaraz | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1825 | 2276 |
| Surface Elo | 1825 | 2276 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | -0.60 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.25 | 2.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| Rest days | 2 | 4 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 10 Oct | A | Carlos Alcaraz | 0 - 2 | L |
| 08 Oct | H | Nicolas Mejia | 2 - 0 | W |
| 08 Oct | H | Nicolas Mejia | 2 - 0 | W |
| 30 Sep | H | Bu Yunchaokete | 1 - 2 | L |
| 30 Sep | H | Yunchaokete Bu | 1 - 2 | L |
| 10 Oct | H | Juan Manuel Cerundolo | 2 - 0 | W |
| 06 Oct | H | Jiri Lehecka | 2 - 0 | W |
| 06 Oct | H | Jiri Lehecka | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Oct | H | Jaume Munar | 2 - 1 | W |
| 05 Oct | H | Jaume Munar | 2 - 1 | W |
| 10 Oct 2026 | Carlos Alcaraz | 2 - 0 | Juan Manuel Cerundolo |
| 08 Nov 2021 | Carlos Alcaraz | 1 - 0 | Juan Manuel Cerundolo |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.03 | 97.1% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 15.00 | 6.7% | 09 Oct 06:15 |