OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge

Back to 🎾 Tennis on 2026-10-02

🎾 ATP Challenger Mouilleron-Le-Captif, France Men Singles · Friday 02 October 2026, 13:30 UTC · finished

Clement Tabur 1.20 1 - 2 3.00 Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg

Our markets (latest run)

Market	Most likely	Model	Bookmaker	Edge	Result
1X2	Away win	63.1%	60%	+2.7%	✓ hit

Model breakdown (1X2)

Model	Home	Away
markov	51.0%	49.0%
poisson	37.0%	35.3%
xgboost	30.5%	69.4%
logistic	34.9%	65.1%

Inputs the models saw

	Clement Tabur	Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg
Elo (pre-match)	1600	1738
Surface Elo	1600	1738
Form, last 5 (PPG)	1.20	3.00
Form trend	-0.90	0.00
Season points per game	1.50	3.00
Season goals for / game	1.50	2.00
Season goals against / game	1.25	0.38
Rest days	1	2
Head-to-head (last 10)	2 W	0 W · 0 D

Clement Tabur: last 5

30 Sep	H	Thomas Faurel	2 - 0	W
28 Sep	H	Matteo Martineau	2 - 1	W
28 Sep	H	Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg	1 - 2	L
28 Sep	H	Thomas Faurel	2 - 0	W
28 Sep	H	Matteo Martineau	2 - 1	W

Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg: last 5

30 Sep	H	Gauthier Onclin	2 - 0	W
28 Sep	A	Pierre Hugues Herbert	2 - 0	W
28 Sep	A	Clement Chidekh	0 - 2	L
28 Sep	A	Joel Schwaerzler	2 - 0	W
28 Sep	A	Clement Tabur	2 - 1	W

Head to head

28 Sep 2026	Clement Tabur	1 - 2	Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg
08 Jun 2026	Clement Tabur	2 - 0	Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg
13 Apr 2026	Clement Tabur	1 - 0	Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg

Bookmaker lines

Book	Market	Outcome	Odds	Implied	As of
SportyBet	1X2	away	1.63	61.4%	02 Oct 06:15
SportyBet	1X2	home	2.20	45.5%	02 Oct 06:15

Generated 2026-10-30 15:53 UTC