| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 63.1% | 77% | -13.9% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 70.9% | 29.0% |
| logistic | 59.4% | 40.6% |
| markov | abstained: no serve/return ratings for this match | |
| Sebastian Dominko | Karl Poling | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1509 | 1447 |
| Surface Elo | 1509 | 1447 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | -0.90 |
| Season points per game | 2.00 | 1.29 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.33 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 1.14 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 26 Oct | H | Benjamin Willwerth | 2 - 0 | W |
| 25 Oct | A | Justin Boulais | 2 - 1 | W |
| 11 Oct | H | Daniel Masur | 0 - 2 | L |
| 30 Sep | H | Sebastian Gima | 0 - 2 | L |
| 27 Sep | A | Stepan Baum | 2 - 0 | W |
| 26 Oct | H | Patrick Zahraj | 2 - 0 | W |
| 25 Oct | H | Maxwell Exsted | 1 - 0 | W |
| 18 Oct | H | Alex Rybakov | 0 - 2 | L |
| 15 Oct | A | Iker Urribarrens Ramirez | 0 - 2 | L |
| 27 Sep | A | Patrick Zahraj | 1 - 2 | L |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.35 | 29.8% | 27 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.30 | 76.9% | 27 Oct 06:15 |