| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 54.9% | 43% | +11.4% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 51.1% | 48.9% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 53.5% | 46.4% |
| logistic | 54.6% | 45.4% |
| Joao Domingues | Vadym Ursu | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1418 | 1396 |
| Surface Elo | 1418 | 1396 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.90 | 0.60 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 0.67 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.67 |
| Rest days | 3 | 5 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 23 Sep | A | Robin Bertrand | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 May | A | Eero Vasa | 0 - 2 | L |
| 30 Sep | A | Daniel Elahi Galan | 0 - 2 | L |
| 30 Sep | A | Gastao Elias | 2 - 0 | W |
| 30 Sep | A | Bernabe Zapata Miralles | 2 - 1 | W |
| 22 Sep | H | Borna Gojo | 0 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep | A | Hugo Grenier | 0 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep | A | Borna Gojo | 0 - 2 | L |
| 20 Sep | A | Gabi Adrian Boitan | 2 - 1 | W |
| 07 Sep | A | Dimitar Kuzmanov | 0 - 2 | L |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.58 | 63.3% | 27 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.30 | 43.5% | 27 Sep 06:15 |