| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 51.9% | 49% | +3.1% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or draw | 78.3% | 75% | +3.2% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 69.2% | 65% | +4.1% | void |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 54.4% | 41% | +13.5% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 50.1% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 58.6% | 22.7% | 18.7% |
| xgboost | 44.4% | 26.9% | 28.7% |
| logistic | 48.1% | 30.0% | 21.9% |
| Telstar | Den Haag | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1500 | 1335 |
| Surface Elo | 1500 | 1335 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | -0.10 |
| Season points per game | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 21 | 21 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 20 Sep | A | AZ Alkmaar | 0 - 1 | L |
| 20 Sep | A | AZ Alkmaar | 0 - 1 | L |
| 13 Sep | A | Heerenveen | 0 - 0 | D |
| 09 Sep | A | Twente | 0 - 1 | L |
| 06 Sep | H | Cambuur | 2 - 2 | D |
| 19 Sep | H | Cambuur | 1 - 1 | D |
| 19 Sep | H | Cambuur | 1 - 1 | D |
| 12 Sep | A | Twente | 0 - 2 | L |
| 06 Sep | H | For Sittard | 2 - 3 | L |
| 30 Aug | A | Feyenoord | 2 - 2 | D |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.34 | 29.9% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.80 | 26.3% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.05 | 48.8% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.56 | 64.1% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.45 | 40.8% | 09 Oct 06:15 |