| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 75.1% | 80% | -5.2% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 19.5% | 80.5% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 28.2% | 71.8% |
| logistic | 33.7% | 66.3% |
| Maria Timofeeva | Naomi Osaka | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1602 | 1874 |
| Surface Elo | 1602 | 1874 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 3.00 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.00 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 2 | 33 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 30 Sep | A | Darja Vidmanova | 2 - 0 | W |
| 30 Sep | H | Naomi Osaka | 1 - 2 | L |
| 30 Sep | A | Darja Vidmanova | 2 - 0 | W |
| 27 Sep | H | Reese Brantmeier | 2 - 0 | W |
| 26 Sep | H | Mia Pohankova | 2 - 1 | W |
| 30 Sep | A | Karolina Muchova | 1 - 2 | L |
| 30 Sep | H | Sara Bejlek | 2 - 0 | W |
| 30 Sep | A | Maria Timofeeva | 2 - 1 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | Elena Rybakina | 0 - 2 | L |
| 30 Aug | A | Elise Mertens | 2 - 1 | W |
| 30 Sep 2026 | Maria Timofeeva | 1 - 2 | Naomi Osaka |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.25 | 80.0% | 02 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 4.15 | 24.1% | 02 Oct 06:15 |