| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 57.9% | 68% | -10.6% |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 44.4% | 55.6% |
| logistic | 36.4% | 63.6% |
| markov | abstained: unknown match format (best_of=0) | |
| Matteo Berrettini | Alex De Minaur | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1844 | 2055 |
| Surface Elo | 1844 | 2055 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | -0.90 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 1 | 2 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 3 W | 2 W 路 0 D |
| 29 Oct | A | Flavio Cobolli | 1 - 0 | W |
| 26 Oct | H | Tomas Martin Etcheverry | 2 - 0 | W |
| 20 Oct | H | Kyrian Jacquet | 0 - 2 | L |
| 20 Oct | A | Kyrian Jacquet | 0 - 2 | L |
| 09 Oct | H | Brandon Nakashima | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Oct | A | Learner Tien | 2 - 0 | W |
| 26 Oct | A | Tomas Machac | 2 - 1 | W |
| 15 Oct | A | Alexander Zverev | 0 - 2 | L |
| 15 Oct | H | Alexander Zverev | 0 - 2 | L |
| 13 Oct | H | Karen Khachanov | 2 - 0 | W |
| 20 Oct 2025 | Alex De Minaur | 2 - 0 | Matteo Berrettini |
| 17 Mar 2025 | Alex De Minaur | 0 - 2 | Matteo Berrettini |
| 03 Jul 2023 | Alex De Minaur | 0 - 3 | Matteo Berrettini |
| 03 Jan 2022 | Alex De Minaur | 2 - 0 | Matteo Berrettini |
| 14 Jun 2021 | Alex De Minaur | 0 - 2 | Matteo Berrettini |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | h2h | Alex de Minaur | 1.46 | 68.5% | 30 Oct 06:01 |
| 1xBet | h2h | Matteo Berrettini | 2.80 | 35.7% | 30 Oct 06:01 |
| 888sport | h2h | Alex de Minaur | 1.44 | 69.4% | 30 Oct 06:01 |
| 888sport | h2h | Matteo Berrettini | 2.75 | 36.4% | 30 Oct 06:01 |
| BetAnything | h2h | Alex de Minaur | 1.44 | 69.4% | 30 Oct 06:01 |
| BetAnything | h2h | Matteo Berrettini | 2.85 | 35.1% | 30 Oct 06:01 |
| Betclic (FR) | h2h | Alex de Minaur | 1.40 | 71.4% | 30 Oct 06:01 |
| Betclic (FR) | h2h | Matteo Berrettini | 2.60 | 38.5% | 30 Oct 06:01 |
| Betfair sharp | h2h | Alex de Minaur | 1.47 | 68.0% | 30 Oct 06:01 |
| Betfair sharp | h2h | Matteo Berrettini | 3.00 | 33.3% | 30 Oct 06:01 |
| Betfair sharp | h2h_lay | Alex de Minaur | 1.50 | 66.7% | 30 Oct 06:01 |
| Betfair sharp | h2h_lay | Matteo Berrettini | 3.15 | 31.8% | 30 Oct 06:01 |
| BetOnline.ag | h2h | Alex de Minaur | 1.45 | 69.0% | 30 Oct 06:01 |
| BetOnline.ag | h2h | Matteo Berrettini | 2.84 | 35.2% | 30 Oct 06:01 |
| Betsson | h2h | Alex de Minaur | 1.44 | 69.4% | 30 Oct 06:01 |
| Betsson | h2h | Matteo Berrettini | 2.75 | 36.4% | 30 Oct 06:01 |
| Coolbet | h2h | Alex de Minaur | 1.44 | 69.4% | 30 Oct 06:01 |
| Coolbet | h2h | Matteo Berrettini | 2.80 | 35.7% | 30 Oct 06:01 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | h2h | Alex de Minaur | 1.48 | 67.6% | 30 Oct 06:01 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | h2h | Matteo Berrettini | 2.65 | 37.7% | 30 Oct 06:01 |
| Marathon Bet | h2h | Alex de Minaur | 1.44 | 69.4% | 30 Oct 06:01 |
| Marathon Bet | h2h | Matteo Berrettini | 2.76 | 36.2% | 30 Oct 06:01 |
| Matchbook | h2h | Alex de Minaur | 1.47 | 68.0% | 30 Oct 06:01 |
| Matchbook | h2h | Matteo Berrettini | 3.00 | 33.3% | 30 Oct 06:01 |
| Matchbook | h2h_lay | Alex de Minaur | 1.50 | 66.7% | 30 Oct 06:01 |
| Matchbook | h2h_lay | Matteo Berrettini | 3.15 | 31.8% | 30 Oct 06:01 |
| Nordic Bet | h2h | Alex de Minaur | 1.44 | 69.4% | 30 Oct 06:01 |
| Nordic Bet | h2h | Matteo Berrettini | 2.75 | 36.4% | 30 Oct 06:01 |
| Pinnacle sharp | h2h | Alex de Minaur | 1.45 | 69.0% | 30 Oct 06:01 |
| Pinnacle sharp | h2h | Matteo Berrettini | 2.95 | 33.9% | 30 Oct 06:01 |
| PMU (FR) | h2h | Alex de Minaur | 1.42 | 70.4% | 30 Oct 06:01 |
| PMU (FR) | h2h | Matteo Berrettini | 2.50 | 40.0% | 30 Oct 06:01 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.46 | 68.5% | 30 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.80 | 35.7% | 30 Oct 06:15 |
| Tipico | h2h | Alex de Minaur | 1.40 | 71.4% | 30 Oct 06:01 |
| Tipico | h2h | Matteo Berrettini | 2.70 | 37.0% | 30 Oct 06:01 |
| Unibet (FR) | h2h | Alex de Minaur | 1.39 | 71.9% | 30 Oct 06:01 |
| Unibet (FR) | h2h | Matteo Berrettini | 2.55 | 39.2% | 30 Oct 06:01 |
| Unibet (NL) | h2h | Alex de Minaur | 1.48 | 67.6% | 30 Oct 06:01 |
| Unibet (NL) | h2h | Matteo Berrettini | 2.65 | 37.7% | 30 Oct 06:01 |
| Unibet (SE) | h2h | Alex de Minaur | 1.48 | 67.6% | 30 Oct 06:01 |
| Unibet (SE) | h2h | Matteo Berrettini | 2.65 | 37.7% | 30 Oct 06:01 |
| William Hill | h2h | Alex de Minaur | 1.44 | 69.4% | 30 Oct 06:01 |
| William Hill | h2h | Matteo Berrettini | 2.75 | 36.4% | 30 Oct 06:01 |
| Winamax (DE) | h2h | Alex de Minaur | 1.45 | 69.0% | 30 Oct 06:01 |
| Winamax (DE) | h2h | Matteo Berrettini | 2.75 | 36.4% | 30 Oct 06:01 |
| Winamax (FR) | h2h | Alex de Minaur | 1.40 | 71.4% | 30 Oct 06:01 |
| Winamax (FR) | h2h | Matteo Berrettini | 2.55 | 39.2% | 30 Oct 06:01 |