| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 44.3% | 43% | +0.8% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or away | 71.3% | 77% | -5.5% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 59.0% | 60% | -0.6% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 55.1% | 50% | +5.1% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 54.1% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 41.3% | 26.3% | 32.4% |
| xgboost | 32.6% | 36.2% | 31.3% |
| logistic | 37.2% | 28.8% | 34.1% |
| Accrington | Cheltenham | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1349 | 1460 |
| Surface Elo | 1349 | 1460 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| Form trend | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 0.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 7 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 3 W | 3 W · 4 D |
| 26 Sep | A | Swindon | 1 - 1 | D |
| 26 Sep | A | Swindon | 1 - 1 | D |
| 22 Sep | H | Sunderland | 3 - 3 | D |
| 19 Sep | H | Newport County | 0 - 0 | D |
| 19 Sep | H | Newport County | 0 - 0 | D |
| 26 Sep | H | Chesterfield | 2 - 1 | W |
| 26 Sep | H | Chesterfield | 2 - 1 | W |
| 22 Sep | H | Exeter | 2 - 2 | D |
| 19 Sep | A | Colchester | 1 - 1 | D |
| 19 Sep | A | Colchester | 1 - 1 | D |
| 31 Jan 2026 | Accrington | 3 - 1 | Cheltenham |
| 06 Sep 2025 | Cheltenham | 1 - 0 | Accrington |
| 28 Jan 2025 | Accrington | 0 - 0 | Cheltenham |
| 01 Oct 2024 | Cheltenham | 2 - 1 | Accrington |
| 11 Feb 2023 | Cheltenham | 0 - 0 | Accrington |
| 17 Sep 2022 | Accrington | 1 - 0 | Cheltenham |
| 02 Apr 2022 | Accrington | 4 - 4 | Cheltenham |
| 16 Oct 2021 | Cheltenham | 1 - 0 | Accrington |
| 13 Jan 2018 | Cheltenham | 0 - 2 | Accrington |
| 23 Sep 2017 | Accrington | 1 - 1 | Cheltenham |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.00 | 33.3% | 02 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.50 | 28.6% | 02 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.30 | 43.5% | 02 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.74 | 57.5% | 02 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.00 | 50.0% | 02 Oct 06:15 |