OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-10-25
⚽ Eredivisie · Sunday 25 October 2026, 13:30 UTC · finished
Nijmegen 0.80 2 - 2 1.60 Groningen
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Home win 52.8%43%+9.8%✗ miss
DCHome or draw 78.7%69%+9.9%✓ hit
DNBHome (DNB) 69.9%57%+12.7%void
O/U 2.5Over 2.5 64.4%69%-4.7%✓ hit
BTTSBTTS yes 64.3%no line✓ hit
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson50.3%24.1%25.6%
xgboost51.1%26.8%22.1%
logistic55.2%24.5%20.2%
Inputs the models saw
NijmegenGroningen
Elo (pre-match)15821555
Surface Elo15821555
Form, last 5 (PPG)0.801.60
Form trend-0.100.00
Season points per game1.111.56
Season goals for / game1.672.44
Season goals against / game1.782.11
Rest days66
Head-to-head (last 10)4 W3 W · 1 D
Nijmegen: last 5
18 OctHFor Sittard2 - 2D
18 OctHFortuna Sittard2 - 2D
10 OctAAjax1 - 1D
10 OctAAjax1 - 1D
20 SepHGo Ahead Eagles1 - 1D
Groningen: last 5
18 OctHAjax2 - 5L
18 OctHAjax2 - 5L
11 OctAExcelsior5 - 1W
11 OctAExcelsior5 - 1W
18 SepHZwolle3 - 0W
Head to head
10 May 2026Groningen2 - 1Nijmegen
09 Nov 2025Nijmegen2 - 0Groningen
08 Feb 2025Groningen2 - 1Nijmegen
03 Nov 2024Nijmegen6 - 0Groningen
25 Apr 2023Groningen0 - 1Nijmegen
26 Aug 2022Nijmegen1 - 1Groningen
12 Mar 2022Groningen4 - 3Nijmegen
31 Oct 2021Nijmegen3 - 0Groningen
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
Bet3651X2away3.6027.8%25 Oct 13:30
Bet3651X2draw4.0025.0%25 Oct 13:30
Bet3651X2home1.9052.6%25 Oct 13:30
Bet365O/U 2.5over1.4469.4%25 Oct 13:30
Bet365O/U 2.5under2.7037.0%25 Oct 13:30
SportyBet1X2away2.8934.6%25 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2draw3.9325.4%25 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2home2.3342.9%25 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5over1.4569.0%25 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5under2.8535.1%25 Oct 06:15
Generated 2026-10-30 18:20 UTC