| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 73.6% | 92% | -18.1% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 75.3% | 24.7% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 89.2% | 10.8% |
| logistic | 69.1% | 30.9% |
| Gustavo Heide | Santiago Rodriguez Taverna | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1721 | 1514 |
| Surface Elo | 1721 | 1514 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | -0.90 | -0.90 |
| Season points per game | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.11 | 1.20 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.67 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 2 | 2 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 21 Oct | H | Juan Pablo Varillas | 1 - 0 | W |
| 20 Oct | H | Alex Hernandez | 2 - 1 | W |
| 19 Oct | H | Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida | 0 - 2 | L |
| 19 Oct | H | Santiago Rodriguez Taverna | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Oct | H | Juan Pablo Varillas | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Oct | H | Gonzalo Bueno | 2 - 1 | W |
| 20 Oct | A | Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez | 2 - 1 | W |
| 19 Oct | H | Sergio Luis Hernandez Ramirez | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Oct | A | Gustavo Heide | 0 - 2 | L |
| 19 Oct | A | Gonzalo Bueno | 2 - 1 | W |
| 19 Oct 2026 | Gustavo Heide | 2 - 0 | Santiago Rodriguez Taverna |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 6.60 | 15.2% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.09 | 91.7% | 23 Oct 06:15 |