| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 58.9% | 65% | -6.0% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 57.2% | 42.8% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 52.7% | 47.2% |
| logistic | 58.8% | 41.2% |
| Martin Landaluce | Liam Draxl | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1724 | 1636 |
| Surface Elo | 1724 | 1636 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | -0.90 | -0.60 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 2.25 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.00 | 1.75 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 1 | 2 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 16 Oct | H | Keegan Smith | 2 - 1 | W |
| 12 Oct | H | Ilia Simakin | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | H | Mattia Bellucci | 1 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | A | Liam Draxl | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | A | Keegan Smith | 2 - 1 | W |
| 15 Oct | A | Ilya Ivashka | 2 - 1 | W |
| 12 Oct | H | Omar Jasika | 2 - 1 | W |
| 12 Oct | H | Martin Landaluce | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | H | Tomas Machac | 2 - 1 | W |
| 12 Oct | A | Ilya Ivashka | 2 - 1 | W |
| 12 Oct 2026 | Liam Draxl | 0 - 2 | Martin Landaluce |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.40 | 41.7% | 17 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.54 | 64.9% | 17 Oct 06:15 |