| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 56.3% | 64% | -8.0% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or draw | 82.7% | 86% | -3.6% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 75.6% | 81% | -5.7% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 51.8% | 41% | +11.0% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 49.9% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 52.9% | 24.3% | 22.8% |
| xgboost | 60.5% | 25.3% | 14.1% |
| logistic | 57.6% | 25.3% | 17.1% |
| Luton | Doncaster | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1566 | 1476 |
| Surface Elo | 1566 | 1476 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | -0.60 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| Rest days | 3 | 3 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 2 W | 1 W · 1 D |
| 24 Oct | H | Leicester | 2 - 1 | W |
| 24 Oct | H | Leicester | 2 - 1 | W |
| 20 Oct | H | Barnsley | 2 - 1 | W |
| 20 Oct | H | Barnsley | 2 - 1 | W |
| 17 Oct | A | Milton Keynes Dons | 1 - 2 | L |
| 24 Oct | H | Sheffield Weds | 2 - 0 | W |
| 24 Oct | H | Sheffield Weds | 2 - 0 | W |
| 20 Oct | H | Stockport | 0 - 2 | L |
| 20 Oct | H | Stockport | 0 - 2 | L |
| 17 Oct | A | Leicester | 1 - 2 | L |
| 10 Mar 2026 | Doncaster | 1 - 1 | Luton |
| 27 Sep 2025 | Luton | 1 - 0 | Doncaster |
| 23 Mar 2019 | Luton | 4 - 0 | Doncaster |
| 08 Sep 2018 | Doncaster | 2 - 1 | Luton |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 5.40 | 18.5% | 27 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 4.60 | 21.7% | 27 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.54 | 64.9% | 27 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.54 | 64.9% | 27 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.45 | 40.8% | 27 Oct 06:15 |