| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 46.8% | 40% | +7.2% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or away | 73.5% | 76% | -2.5% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 61.2% | 55% | +6.1% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 54.4% | 52% | +2.0% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 50.1% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 41.8% | 30.7% | 27.5% |
| xgboost | 43.0% | 26.8% | 30.1% |
| logistic | 38.0% | 31.0% | 31.0% |
| Watford | Charlton | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1426 | 1505 |
| Surface Elo | 1426 | 1505 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| Form trend | 0.60 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| Season goals for / game | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.90 | 1.30 |
| Rest days | 3 | 3 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 1 W · 1 D |
| 13 Oct | A | Cardiff | 1 - 5 | L |
| 13 Oct | A | Cardiff | 1 - 5 | L |
| 10 Oct | H | Burnley | 0 - 4 | L |
| 10 Oct | H | Burnley | 0 - 4 | L |
| 18 Sep | A | Bristol City | 0 - 1 | L |
| 13 Oct | A | Burnley | 2 - 2 | D |
| 13 Oct | A | Burnley | 2 - 2 | D |
| 10 Oct | H | Bristol City | 1 - 1 | D |
| 10 Oct | H | Bristol City | 1 - 1 | D |
| 19 Sep | A | Cardiff | 1 - 3 | L |
| 06 Apr 2026 | Watford | 1 - 1 | Charlton |
| 09 Aug 2025 | Charlton | 1 - 0 | Watford |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 3.10 | 32.3% | 17 Oct 12:30 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 3.30 | 30.3% | 17 Oct 12:30 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 2.20 | 45.5% | 17 Oct 12:30 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.91 | 52.4% | 17 Oct 12:30 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.91 | 52.4% | 17 Oct 12:30 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.81 | 35.6% | 17 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.46 | 28.9% | 17 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.60 | 38.5% | 17 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.93 | 51.8% | 17 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.91 | 52.4% | 17 Oct 06:15 |